Hay-Search Time & Odds Calculator

Estimate how long it takes to find the needle in Needle In A Haystack. Adjust straws-per-pull, hands rank, vent cadence, and lobby size to see expected minutes, minutes-to-empty, and a closed-form probability curve for the canonical 1-in-5,000,000 straw pile.

Straws per pull (hands T1) Hands rank Hands multiplier per rank Vent trip seconds (round trip) Lobby size Pile total straws Session minutes Drones count

Gamepass toggles FAST LEGS (1.5x walk) 2x HANDS gamepass (doubles straws/pull) VENT IN YOUR POCKET (no vent trip) 2x CASH (cash multiplier) +2 DRONES (+2 to drone count)

Straws/sec (player)0

Straws/sec (team)0

Minutes to empty pile0

P(find) this session0

P(find) with drones0

Verdict—

Planning model from Tools Design.md — Tool 1 (Hay-Search Time & Odds). Straws-per-pull and trip cadence are research inputs; verify in your run before treating as official. Last verified 2026-09-09.

Methodology and assumptions

Method: treats each straw pickup as one independent Bernoulli trial with p = 1/5,000,000. Cumulative find probability is 1 - (1 - p)^N_straws; team form sums player rates before exponentiating. Assumptions: straws-per-pull is a research-model input, not server telemetry; FAST LEGS applies a 1.5x walk multiplier; VENT IN YOUR POCKET removes the vent trip tax. Applicability: use for planning horizons of 0.5 to 240 minutes; verify exact straws-per-second values in your live session.

Sources

Tools Design.md — Tool 1 (Hay-Search Time & Odds Calculator)
Steam original pitch — 1 needle in 5,000,000 pieces of hay
Official Roblox Needle In A Haystack experience
Roblox universes/v1 API — universe 10761200080